CS2 Cases & Drop Odds Explained
Updated 2026-06-20
What's inside CS2 weapon cases, the official per-grade drop odds, key cost, the rare-special knife/glove chance, and whether opening cases is worth it.
What's in a case
A CS2 weapon case contains skins across four rarity grades - Mil-Spec (blue), Restricted (purple), Classified (pink) and Covert (red) - plus a 'rare special' item: a knife or pair of gloves. Opening a case requires a matching key, which you buy from the Steam Market.
Every result also rolls a random wear (float) within that skin's range and has a separate chance to come out StatTrak™, so the exact item you get is the product of three rolls: which skin, which wear, and StatTrak or not.
The official drop odds
Valve publishes the per-grade odds for every case: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, and the rare special (knife/gloves) 0.26%. Within a grade, each skin is equally likely.
So a specific Covert skin's chance is 0.64% divided by the number of Coverts in that case, and any single knife is a small fraction of the 0.26% rare-special slot. Every case page on skins.ai shows that case's exact odds, per grade and per item.
Keys, cost and expected value
A key costs about $2.50, and you also need the case itself. Across many openings the expected value of a case is typically below the cost of the case plus key - the long-run math favours the house, even though a single knife or rare Covert can be very profitable.
That's the trade-off: opening is a gamble for the chance at a high-value drop, not a reliable way to make money. If you specifically want one skin from a case, it's almost always cheaper to buy that skin directly on the market than to open for it.
FAQ
What are the odds of unboxing a knife in CS2?
The rare-special slot (knives/gloves) is 0.26% per opening, then split across that case's knife/glove pool - so any single knife is much rarer than 0.26%.
Is opening CS2 cases worth it?
On average, no - the expected value is typically below the case + key cost. People open for the thrill and the chance at a rare knife, not as a reliable return. To own a specific skin, buying it directly is usually cheaper.
How much does it cost to open a case?
You need the case plus a key (about $2.50). Cases themselves are often cheap, but the key is the main per-opening cost.
What are the exact CS2 case odds?
Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, and rare special (knife/gloves) 0.26%. Each skin within a grade is equally likely, then a random wear is rolled.
Where can I see a specific case's drop odds?
On skins.ai, each case page lists the official per-grade odds and the per-item chance, computed from the skins in that case.