CS2 Trade-Up Contracts Explained
Updated 2026-06-20
How Counter-Strike 2 trade-up contracts work - inputs, outputs, odds, how output float is calculated, and whether trade-ups are profitable.
What is a trade-up contract?
A trade-up contract exchanges 10 skins of the same rarity grade for one skin of the next grade up (Consumer → Industrial → Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert). All 10 inputs must be the same grade and the same type - all normal, or all StatTrak™ (StatTrak inputs produce a StatTrak output).
The possible outputs are the next-grade skins from the collections your inputs belong to, so the skins you put in decide what you can get out. Covert is the ceiling - you can't trade up Covert skins, and knives and gloves are never trade-up outputs.
Outputs and odds
In a single-collection trade-up (all 10 inputs from one collection), every next-grade skin in that collection is an equally likely outcome. If you mix collections, the odds are weighted by how many inputs came from each collection - five inputs from Collection A and five from Collection B gives each collection's outputs half the total probability, divided among that collection's eligible skins.
Because the result is random within that pool, trade-ups carry variance: one expensive outcome can carry the average even when most results are cheaper than your inputs.
How the output float is calculated
The output's float is the average of your 10 inputs' float values, then mapped onto the output skin's own float range. So lower-float inputs produce a lower-float (cleaner, more valuable) result.
This is why float-farming trade-ups work: using very low-float inputs can yield a Factory New or low-float output even on skins that are usually expensive in that condition - sometimes the whole point of the contract.
Are trade-ups profitable?
A trade-up is profitable when the average output value (after the marketplace fee you'd pay to sell) is higher than the total cost of the 10 inputs. Most random trade-ups are break-even or slightly negative - the value is in finding the specific input/collection combinations where the math is currently positive.
skins.ai's trade-up calculator does this for you: it computes the input cost, expected output value, profit/ROI and win chance for every collection and ranks the most profitable contracts available right now.
FAQ
Are CS2 trade-ups profitable?
Sometimes - it depends on input cost versus average output value, net of fees. Most random trade-ups are break-even or negative; our trade-up calculator surfaces the collections where the math is currently positive.
Can you lose money on a trade-up?
Yes. The output is random within the pool, so any single contract can return less than you paid. Profitability is a long-run average, not a guarantee on one trade-up.
How is the output skin's float decided?
It's the average float of your 10 inputs, mapped onto the output skin's float range - so lower-float inputs give a lower-float (usually more valuable) result.
Can you mix collections in a trade-up?
Yes. Mixing collections changes the output odds, weighted by how many inputs come from each collection. Single-collection contracts are the simplest to reason about.
Can you trade up to a knife?
No. Knives and gloves are never trade-up outputs, and Covert is the highest grade you can produce - you can't trade up Covert skins.